The Palestinian landscape in the coming years stands at a crossroads. The PA faces internal and external pressures that make its future uncertain, and the paper sketches four main scenarios of what might happen between 2025 and 2027.
The first scenario: Controlled disintegration
The PA gradually erodes without a complete collapse, with institutions remaining nominally in place while its actual capacity is diminished. This situation allows Israel and international powers to control the level of chaos to serve their security interests.
Second scenario: Re-engineering with political money
Foreign money becomes a tool for reshaping the Palestinian leadership through conditional support that promotes a more formally organized authority, but one that is less independent and more dependent on American and Israeli conditionalities.
Scenario Three: Internal strengthening
Despite its difficulty, Palestinian elites may succeed in internal reforms and reconciliation that strengthen the legitimacy of the authority and give it greater autonomy. However, this option remains the weakest in the face of the current division.
Fourth scenario: Total failure
The complete collapse of the PA leads to security and political chaos in the West Bank, with the possibility of the return of direct Israeli administration or the rise of alternative forces. This is the most dangerous scenario regionally and internationally.
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