The fall of 2025 reveals a turbulent regional landscape being reshaped amid wars and crises. From the devastating war in Gaza, to the intensive Israeli strikes against Iran, to the suffocating economic shifts, all of this paints a new picture of the regional order between collapse and alliance.
Iran's axis is disintegrating
After decades of leading the "axis of resistance," Iran is now facing its weakest moment. The assassination of prominent leaders such as Hassan Nasrallah and Revolutionary Guard commanders, and the decline in support from traditional allies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, has made its regional project more fragile than ever.
Direct confrontation between Israel and Iran
The Twelve-Day War in June 2025 represented the culmination of a direct clash. Israel struck Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, while Tehran responded with hundreds of missiles and rockets. Direct US intervention favored Israel, but increased the fragility of the Iranian interior, which suffers from inflation of more than 29% and a collapsing currency.
The Gulf: Between appeasement and new alliances
Despite the diplomatic dรฉtente with Iran under Chinese auspices, Gulf anxiety over the threat of Iran has not disappeared. As a result, Gulf states have turned to unfamiliar security partnerships: Closer cooperation with the United States, tactical rapprochement with Israel, and increasing openness to China and Russia. This flexibility represents an attempt to create a new balance that protects the region from any Iranian adventurism.
Gaza: Between Destruction and "The Day After"
The war in Gaza has created an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe: 91 percent of the population was internally displaced, and 69 percent of buildings were destroyed or damaged by spring 2024, while in the northern Gaza Strip the percentage rose to 80 percent. Yet the "day after" has been discussed behind regional and international backdrops without involving the Palestinians. Most plans focused on security guarantees for Israel, while Egypt proposed a $27 billion reconstruction initiative over three years, prioritizing the survival of residents on their land.
Economy as an arena of conflict
The region is facing youth unemployment of up to 40 percent, inflation of more than 119 percent in some countries such as Sudan, and crippling public debts that threaten the stability of regimes. Reconstruction in Syria, Yemen, and Gaza will cost hundreds of billions, making the economy an existential test of the regimes' legitimacy.
Future scenarios
The paper sketches three possible paths: An internal collapse in Iran that could change the balance of power; a "Gulf-Israeli cold peace" that strengthens security alliances without resolving the Palestinian issue; or major social explosions due to unemployment and hunger that could constitute a new "economic spring" more severe than 2011.
Bottom line: ๐
The Middle East in the fall of 2025 is not just a transition, but a radical reconfiguration of the regional order. Between open wars, exhausted economies, and unfamiliar alliances, the region faces a new decade at the intersection of collapse and survival.
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