Are we witnessing the birth of a Middle Eastern Cold War between Turkey and Israel?

The years 2024 and 2025 witnessed unprecedented shifts in the relationship between Turkey and Israel, a relationship that has always oscillated between cooperation and confrontation, but today it has entered a new phase that resembles an open confrontation on more than one arena.

In Syria, the fall of the Assad regime was the biggest spark. Turkey surprised everyone by signing a military agreement with Damascus in August 2025, including rebuilding and arming the Syrian army. The move was a complete reversal of its previous policies, while Israel responded with more than 600 air strikes since December 2024, and effectively established a 12-kilometer buffer zone inside Syrian territory. The scene became closer to a race for influence on the ruins of an exhausted state.

In Gaza, Ankara raised the level of confrontation to an unprecedented level: it completely cut off trade with Israel, closed ports and airspace, and halted a trade exchange worth about $7 billion, a move that made Turkey the only country to undertake such a public escalation.

Secret meetings in Baku and direct military channels mediated by the United States established mechanisms to "avoid clashes." It was as if the two sides were sending a double message: "We are adversaries...but we don't want a full-scale war."

Regionally, Ankara has warmed its relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, giving it a new Arab support network. On the other hand, Israel has increased its bet on its alliances with the UAE and the West. Between the two sides, Russia has remained a "silent arbiter," while Washington is trying to set the rhythm and prevent an explosion.

The options for both sides are open: a prolonged "cold war," temporary tactical understandings, or a military escalation that could change the rules of the game in the Eastern Mediterranean. But what is certain is that the relationship between Ankara and Tel Aviv is no longer a bilateral affair, but has become a key to understanding where the entire Middle East is headed.

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