The global economy is undergoing a profound structural shift that could end a century of developed country dominance. According to IMF estimates, growth is expected to slow to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, the lowest levels in half a century.
The world is no longer moving in a unified economic rhythm, but is moving towards a dual landscape: developed economies are slowing down and faltering, and emerging economies are rising despite their fragility.
While emerging markets are growing at nearly 4% compared to just 1.5% in industrialized countries, this apparent superiority masks a dangerous fragility. More than 60% of low-income countries are now in debt distress or in crisis, with the cost of servicing debt quadrupling in a decade.
In contrast, advanced economies suffer from a lethal combination: low productivity, high service inflation, aging populations, and declining investments. Growth in the United States, Europe, and Japan is only 1% per year on average, and productivity has fallen from 1.4% to 0.8% since 2008. Although unemployment has fallen, real wages have declined, and inequality has widened.
India continues to grow at over 6% per year, Gulf Arab economies are investing energy revenues in diversification, and the digitization of emerging economies from Africa to Asia is accelerating. The green transition is an exceptional opportunity. The International Energy Agency estimates that the world needs $4.5 trillion per year in clean energy investments by 2030, with a large share of that going to developing markets, and the IEA estimates that the world needs $4.5 trillion in clean energy investments by 2030.
Migration is also emerging as a demographic safety valve. Today, migrants make up 3.6% of the global population (281 million people) and have helped prevent population shrinkage in European countries such as Germany and Italy. However, rising populism and restrictions on immigration are making it harder to capitalize on this card.
The world is moving towards a new multipolar economic system, in which the unipolarity of the West declines and the Global South rises as the engine of growth, production, and consumption. The shift is no longer a theoretical question but a reality: Who will control the future of the global economy over the next decade? Who has the young labor force, digital capital, and renewable energy will write the next chapters of economic hegemony.
To watch the video and read the full analytical paper, please scroll down.
Comments