The future of Gaza: A Strategic Vision for Potential Scenarios

Gaza after the war: Who will write the next chapter?

Since the outbreak of the 2023 war, the Gaza Strip has transformed from a local issue to a hot international issue, where the interests of major powers, regional stakes, and Palestinian dreams of freedom intersect. But who is drawing the contours of tomorrow? The paper monitors the map of the proposed plans and future scenarios.

Competing plans for Gaza

• Israel's "Gaza 2035": Promises modern cities and economic projects, but under full Israeli security control and without a Palestinian state. Critics see it as a reconstruction project without its original inhabitants.

• TheU.S. BOTPlan: Lease Gaza for fifty years to international companies that would run it as an investment project. Palestinian sovereignty? Postponed until mid-century!

• The European proposal: "gradual dismantling" of Hamas weapons in exchange for reconstruction and political guarantees, with international supervision and pressure on Israel.

• TheEgyptian plan: Broader and more comprehensive - 53 billion dollars for reconstruction, a categorical rejection of displacement, a Palestinian transitional administration, and a final solution based on the two-state solution.

• American think tank plan: An international transitional administration, multinational security, and reconstruction balanced by a long-term political process.

Four scenarios for the future of the Gaza Strip

1. Full occupation: Full invasion and possible displacement, with a 25 percent chance of realization.

2. An interim negotiated solution: Gradual dismantling of Hamas, reconstruction, and lifting of the blockade - 40 percent likely.

3. A long war of attrition: Continued bombing and siege with no end in sight, with a humanitarian catastrophe (30%).

4. Forced international intervention: UN trusteeship by force, low probability (5%).

The fine line between war and peace

The study suggests that a phased negotiated solution is the most realistic way out, if there is political will and security guarantees for both sides. The other alternatives are either open catastrophe or an imposed trusteeship that may deepen the crisis.
The most important message: The future of Gaza is tied to the future of the Palestinian cause, and any reconstruction without justice will remain based on quicksand.